Champions League winner odds 2023: Who will win it all? Outrights, top picks and expert predictions

The 2022/23 UEFA Champions League is nearing the semifinal stage, and some of Europe's top clubs are still alive in the competition, looking to push for the most coveted prize in all of club football.

Just Manchester City, Real Madrid, Inter Milan, and AC Milan remain, with two delicious matchups set to determine the finalists in Turkey.

With just those final four teams left alive, the odds have swung heavily in Man City's favour, even as they match up against defending champions Madrid. In the other semifinal, a mouth-watering Italian derby matchup will play out across two legs.

The Sporting News brings you a look at how the betting market thinks the last four could play out, plus a look back at our early tips and selections.

MORE: When is the quarterfinal draw of the UEFA Champions League?

Who will win the 2023 Champions League? Latest odds

With the semifinals around the corner, there are only four teams remaining in the competition, and all four have shown the capabilities of matching up against top sides.

Favourites Manchester City are leading the scorching hot Premier League title race, while also seeing a strong Bayern Munich squad out of the Champions League in the quarterfinals.

Real Madrid have struggled in La Liga play, but took care of both Liverpool and Chelsea handily in the UCL knockout stage ahead of their third straight matchup against an English club.

The other semifinal features two heated Italian rivals on both sides of the Milan derby. Inter are considered the slight favourites to advance from that matchup, but AC Milan won their league matchup back in September before narrowly dropping the reverse fixture in February.

Odds as of Monday, May 8, 2023.

Odds from prior to knockout stage

For reference and comparison, here are the odds as listed prior to the start of the quarterfinals, as of the end of play on March 15.

At the time, Manchester City were still the betting favorites, with Bayern Munich right behind them after the German side got past PSG. The market believed those two teams were far and away the two best sides in the competition at the time.

Defending champions Real Madrid saw their odds cut in half from +1100 to +550 after their 5-2 road win at Liverpool in the first leg.

Chelsea's odds were halved after they moved past Borussia Dortmund, going from +2000 to +1000. Meanwhile, Benfica were unchanged throughout at +2000, showing that the betting market had already baked in their advancing against Club Brugge.

AC Milan went from +3300 to +2500 after seeing off Tottenham, including 50/1 to 20/1 on SkyBet (UK), and 41.00 to 23.00 on Ladbrokes (Australia).

Odds as of Wednesday, March 15.

Picks, predictions to win the 2023 Champions League

Selections made prior to Round of 16 matchups in mid-February.

Best favorite: Bayern Munich (+550 in November / +250 in March)

The way Bayern Munich blitzed the supposed "Group of Death" was not only impressive, it was stunning. The Bavarian side dominated two flawed teams in Inter and Barcelona, exposing their every weakness with ease.

Bayern scored 18 goals across the six matches while conceding just two, an utterly insane spread given the strength of the group. The two goals they conceded, oddly enough, came on the road against group losers Viktoria Plzen. They did not concede a single goal against Inter or Barcelona.

Yet, Bayern are conceding regularly in Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal play. That could simply be a matter of needing motivation, coming through on the biggest stage but struggling at times to get up for games against Augsburg and Mainz. That can't happen in the Champions League, especially given their extremely tough Round of 16 draw against PSG, but history shows they'll be up to the task.

Best long shot: Napoli (+1000 in November / +600 in March)

Napoli are, quite simply, the hottest team in Europe. They lead the Italian top flight by a sizable margin, and dominated their Champions League group, only falling short in the final fixture at Anfield when a knockout stage spot had already been secured.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is quickly becoming a popular figure on the European scene, combining with Piotr Zielinski to create a deadly creative force to feed target man Victor Osimhen, helping Napoli score the most goals of any group stage team. The defense, led by electric two-way full-backs Mario Rui and Giovanni Di Lorenzo, is stout as well, allowing just six group stage goals.

The biggest test will be maintaining the surging momentum through the World Cup break, but if they can keep their levels up, this will be not just a tough out, but a title contender.

Overvalued: Man City (+200), Chelsea (+950)

These were our 'overhyped' picks before the first legs.

Despite eeking past Borussia Dortmund to reach the quarters, Chelsea just do not look like a European contender in the slightest. New manager Graham Potter has not figured out his best starting lineup, and injuries haven't helped, as they have looked second-best in a number of Premier League games of late.

The Blues' attack in particular seems extremely weak, as recent struggles for Mason Mount and Kai Havertz have left the Blues feeding on scraps.

Man City, meanwhile, are a top contender no doubt, but the 2/1 odds to win the whole tournament seem absurd at this early stage. City still have their weaknesses, and any potential knock to Erling Haaland would neuter the potent City attack.

City will push hard to win their Champions League title for sure, as they have a deep and talented squad plus one of the world's best coaches, but the odds seem to overvalue them at great lengths.

Round of 16 upset pick: Porto to defeat Inter Milan

Picking Portuguese teams in European competitions has come with great risk over the past few years due to inconsistency, but all three Champions League teams from Portugal performed competitively throughout the group stage this season.

Benfica were handed a soft Round of 16 draw with Club Brugge, while Porto drew Italian side Inter. While Inter advanced through Group C ahead of a hapless Barcelona side with a pair of positive results over the Catalan club, they have sputtered throughout most of the Italian league season and look vulnerable.

Italian clubs haven't done well in the Champions League over the past five to seven years, and until they prove they can compete with the rest of the continent's elite clubs, it's hard to back them to advance, even past a team like Porto. This year's Napoli side could change the narrative, but it doesn't seem like Inter will be the club to buck the trend.

Sporting News pick to win Champions League: Bayern Munich

Who will win Champions League Golden Boot in 2023?

Kylian Mbappe and Mohamed Salah have the competition's goalscoring lead after the group stage, each with seven goals, but they're joined by a host of contenders who could push for the top spot if given a chance in the knockout stages.

Erling Haaland will be the biggest competition to those two leaders, terrorizing the Premier League and sitting on five Champions League goals as well.

Those three are the clear favorites, and the odds drop off significantly from there. Lionel Messi and Vinicius Jr. are both on four goals, just one behind Haaland, but they both have played more creative roles for their club and are less likely to find the back of the net.

Sadio Mane has proven a threat for Bayern all year since joining in the summer, but he has a large four-goal gap to make up and a maximum of just seven games in which to do so. Neymar is in a similar situation, scoring at will in Ligue 1 play but taking a backseat to Messi and Mbappe in the Champions League so far.

Odds for Champions League top goalscorer

Odds via BetMGM (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), and SkyBet (UK). Odds as of November 6, 2022. Goal totals as of conclusion of group stage.

Best bet for top goalscorer in 2023 Champions League

Obviously, picking a final Champions League top goal scorer is heavily influenced by the goals each player has scored already through the group stage.

Mbappe and Salah have a two-goal lead, and there are only a maximum of seven games (two each in the Round of 16, quarterfinals, and semifinals, plus the final) for any chasing player to make up that advantage. Against the best teams in Europe, that's a significant advantage.

For example, Neymar is one who could make noise, given how incredible his domestic goalscoring form has been, and how electric he's looked on the whole this year so far. Still, he's only got two Champions League goals, and a five-goal gap is just too significant to expect him to recover. He would need multiple two-goal or three-goal games to make a sensational late push. Against the likes of Bayern Munich, that's highly unlikely.

Erling Haaland has proven the biggest overall goalscoring threat in Europe, though, and if anyone can make up a two-goal disadvantage, it's the Man City striker. Haaland also has a distinct advantage over many on the list: he will have an opportunity to rest up during the World Cup break, with Norway not qualifying for the competition. While Mbappe, Salah, Messi, Mane, and many others slog through a high-intensity trip to Qatar, Haaland will be gearing up for an explosion in 2023.

Sporting News pick to finish as UCL top scorer: Erling Haaland

MORE: Updated list of Champions League top goal scorers

Champions League Round of 16 odds, fixtures

Odds via BetMGM (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), and SkyBet (UK). Odds current as of November 7, 2022. All odds are for the first leg only, with the unseeded team (group runners-up) starting at home and group winners hosting the second leg.

Inter Milan vs. Porto odds

Inter Milan are favored significantly at home in the first leg, but bookmakers seem undecided on how to predict the flow of the game. Both teams to score is quite evenly balanced, while the 2.5 goals total is also finely balanced.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Napoli odds

Napoli, as one of the hottest teams in the world, are favored on the road, and goals are expected in this matchup. It's hard to imagine that Eintracht Frankfurt can keep the Italian side out of the net, but Napoli's defense has been overshadowed by the torrent attack, and the German side will have its hands full trying to keep up.

RB Leipzig vs. Man City odds

Manchester City, as the betting favorites to win the tournament, will be a heavy road favorite in Germany for the first leg of this matchup. Goals are expected, with the odds saying both teams to score is likely, and the goal total has even been bumped to 3.5 goals. That could be an opening for bettors who think Man City may play more conservatively on the road in the first leg before heading home for the second leg.

Club Brugge vs. Benfica odds

Benfica pipped PSG for the top of their Champions League group, and it paid off in a big way, drawing Club Brugge, while PSG were handed a date with Bayern Munich. Benfica will be the heavy favorite on the road in the first leg and will be expected to take care of the surprise Belgian participants.

Liverpool vs. Real Madrid odds

A mouth-watering rematch of last year's final surprisingly sees Liverpool as significant favorites despite recent slips in Premier League play. Real Madrid continue to fail to earn respect despite winning the league double last year and topping the La Liga table as the midway point of this campaign nears. Can Liverpool hold serve at home to set up a compelling second leg?

PSG vs. Bayern Munich odds

PSG's failure to keep hold of the group lead came back to haunt them, with a daunting task upcoming against the impressive German giants. This heavyweight matchup will be expected to see loads of goals, and that should come to pass as both teams have shown occasional defensive lapses in league play despite European dominance at the back.

AC Milan vs. Tottenham Hotspur odds

One of the most fascinating ties of the Champions League Round of 16 sees a pair of inconsistent performers match up. Tottenham have slipped in Premier League action as the World Cup nears, but are still well positioned to finish in a top four spot. AC Milan, meanwhile, sit second in Serie A and will be a tough out. Oddsmakers are having a tough time with any foresight in this matchup, indicating it will be full of intrigue.

Borussia Dortmund vs. Chelsea odds

Chelsea, struggling in Premier League play, drew German side Borussia Dortmund and will play the first leg on the road in the Rhineland. The oddsmakers have indicated these two sides are dead even in Germany, and the Blues will hope to keep a high-flying Dortmund attack out of the net to set up a winnable situation in the second leg. Goals will be expected as both teams have demonstrated frailty at the back.