Inter vs AC Milan prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Champions League semifinal 2nd leg
Inter have one foot in the 2023 UEFA Champions League final, but they have to finish the job as they look to hold off hated rivals AC Milan and see their way through to Istanbul.
The second leg hosts at the San Siro are up 2-0 on aggregate after their first leg victory, in which they dominated Milan and took a commanding lead on early goals from Edin Dzeko and Henrikh Mkhitaryan.
In truth, it could have been more, but they were unable to put themselves further out of reach. Because of that, Milan will still believe they have a realistic chance of a comeback, but they'll have to do so in front of the opposing fans in the stadium they share with their rivals.
The absence of Rafael Leao from the AC Milan attack was noticeable in the first leg, and while he could return for this match, his effectiveness will be in question.
MORE: Inter vs Milan head-to-head history
Inter vs Milan odds
Despite their dominance in the first leg, Inter are still plus-odds to win in front of their home fans, with the betting market still understanding much can happen in a rivalry meeting.
The market is also unclear about the flow of the match, with a perfect split on both sides of the goal total, although the under has the slight advantage.
|Both teams |
to score Y / N
|Over / Under |
|+110||+230||+260||-120 / -120||+100 / -145||-2000||+900|
|+104||+230||+266||-127 / -123||+108 / -137||-2179||+710|
|21/20||9/4||11/4||5/6, 5/6||1/1, 8/11||1/66||12/1|
|2.05||3.25||3.75||1.85 / 1.87||2.05 / 1.70||—||—|
|2.05||3.28||3.80||1.84 / 1.90||2.09 / 1.74||1.05||9.45|
Inter vs Milan match facts
- Date: Tuesday, May 16
- Kickoff Time: 3 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. BST / 5 a.m. AEST (Wed, May 17)
- Location: San Siro (Milan, Italy)
- Official: Clement Turpin (FRA)
- First Leg: AC Milan 0-2 Inter (May 10, 2023)
Inter vs Milan team news
For Inter, there aren't many issues to worry about. Milan Skriniar has been mostly out since mid-February with a back injury, for which he had surgery three weeks ago, but he appears to be nearing a return. He missed the first leg, but could be in contention for a return to the squad for this game. Both Robin Gosens and Danilo D'Ambrosio shook off minor injuries to make the bench in the first leg and are back in the squad.
After AC Milan's Rafael Leao missed the first leg and his absence was felt, all eyes will be on his health heading into this do-or-die match with Milan needing to score multiple goals to stay alive. The electric Portuguese winger did not appear over the weekend in league play, but manager Stefano Pioli said "if everything goes well" he will be available. It's a similar story for Ismael Bennacer, who was forced off in the opening 20 minutes of the first leg but looks to be back in training and in contention. Zlatan Ibrahimovic's season-ending calf injury also looms on the squad list, but he has hardly featured this season.
MORE: Breaking down Inter Milan's semifinal first-leg victory
Inter vs Milan key stats
- Rafael Leao has only missed three matches all season, including two in league play due to yellow card suspension, and AC Milan lost all three games.
- Milan have been shut out in three consecutive matches against Inter, unable to score on their last 31 shots. They have never gone four straight games against Inter without scoring.
- Inter have only recorded four wins against AC Milan in a single season one time in history, completing that achievement back in the 1973/74 campaign, where they won twice in league play and twice in the Coppa Italia.
- Only one team has ever come back from a multi-goal first leg defeat in a Champions League semifinal to advance — Liverpool's famous turnaround against Barcelona, which came at home in Anfield.
Inter vs Milan prediction
- Moneyline lean: Inter (+110)
- Score prediction: Inter 1-0 AC Milan
After AC Milan struggled to compete with this Inter side in front of their home fans, it's hard to imagine they'd be able to break down the same opponents in a suddenly hostile environment chasing a deficit.
Inter took their foot off the gas in the second half of the first leg, and were comfortable doing so, especially without Rafael Leao on the field for AC Milan. While Leao could return here, it's unclear how much of an impact he can have, and he may not even be fit enough to start. This uphill battle seems too tough for Milan to handle, and they will be vulnerable at the back. If (when) Inter put the matchup away with a third goal, Milan will know they've been beaten.
Inter vs Milan best bet
- Pick: Half with most goals — 2H
- Odds: +105 (BetMGM)
Inter are likely to come out in this match with a pragmatic approach, while Milan won't panic straight away, knowing they have time to break their opponents down.
This seems like a match that will be decided in the second half, in either direction. The only way this bet falls short is if Inter score in the first half, putting AC Milan away quickly. If AC Milan are the ones who score in the first half, they would press hard for a second after the break, leading to an open match on both ends.
Inter vs Milan prop bet
- Pick: AC Milan under 0.5 total goals
- Odds: +150 (BetMGM)
Milan have failed to score in three straight games against Inter, and they just look uninspired without Rafael Leao. Whether or not the Portuguese winger returns, their attack has been stifled in recent weeks, embarrassingly blanked by Serie A strugglers Spezia over the weekend in league play.
Inter vs Milan flier bet
- Pick: Inter Milan's Andre Onana to receive a card
- Odds: 8/1 (SkyBet)
With Inter up 2-0 in this match, backing the goalkeeper to be booked for time wasting at 8/1 odds is an exceedingly attractive play.
Onana has been booked three times this season across all competitions — all three yellow cards have come in the 87th minute or later, and all three were in one-goal games. If the match is still at all in question at any point in the second half, Onana is a prime candidate to be shown a card, and the odds here are absolutely worth a punt.
Inter Milan vs AC Milan live stream, TV channel
MORE: Watch Premier League matches live with Fubo in USA
|USA||CBS, TUDN, |
ViX, TUDN site/app
|UK||BT Sport 1||BT Sport|
|New Zealand||—||Spark Sport|
|India||—||JioTV, Sony LIV|
|Hong Kong||—||beIN Sports Connect|
|Malaysia||—||beIN Sports Connect|
|Singapore||—||beIN Sports Connect|