Man City vs Real Madrid prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Champions League semifinal 2nd leg
Man City vs Real Madrid prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Champions League semifinal 2nd leg
Man City vs Real Madrid prediction, betting tips & odds for semifinal 2nd leg

In a matchup many have billed as the de facto Champions League final, Manchester City and Real Madrid will meet to determine who reaches the final when they meet for the decisive second leg of their semifinal matchup at the Etihad on Wednesday.

With the aggregate scoreline level at 1-1 after the first leg in Madrid, both sides have reason to believe they can advance through to the final in Istanbul, where Italian club Inter Milan will be waiting.

Madrid, as defending champions, haven't suffered elimination from this competition in two years, and their ability to put domestic struggles behind them and come through in big moments remains a reminder of their European pedigree.

City, meanwhile, are generally regarded as the strongest and deepest team in the world, and are looking for just reward on the European stage after years of toiling for an elusive first Champions League trophy.

MORE: Man City vs Real Madrid live score, updates, highlights, lineups, and result as Rudiger is benched for Champions League semi

Man City vs Real Madrid odds

Despite the scoreline being level going into the second leg, Man City are still heavy favourites against the defending champions.

Goals were expected in the first leg, and while the game delivered a high-quality chess match, the goals didn't flow, so some trepidation exists in the market for this game. The over is favoured significantly, but not as heavily as it was for the first game in Madrid.

  Man City
Draw Real Madrid
Both teams
to score Y / N
Over / Under
2.5 goals
-165 +333 +400 -155 / +110 -175 / +125 -350 +230

-156 +354 +322 -168 / +107 +130 / -166 -340 +222
4/7 10/3 17/4 8/13, 6/5 4/7, 5/4 2/7 5/2
1.57 4.20 5.40 1.62 / 2.15 1.57 / 2.30 1.29 3.50
1.58 4.33 5.20 1.63 / 2.13 1.59 / 2.36 1.30 3.46

Man City vs Real Madrid match facts

  • Date: Wednesday, May 17
  • Kickoff Time: 3 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. BST / 5 a.m. AEST (Thu, May 17)
  • Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester, England)
  • Official: Szymon Marciniak (POL)
  • First leg: Real Madrid 1-1 Man City (May 9, 2023)

Man City vs Real Madrid team news

Manchester City are nearly at full strength, with Nathan Ake's hamstring injury the only concern, but even the Dutchman could be available. Nobody else is sidelined for manager Pep Guardiola, with Kevin de Bruyne clearly over his fitness concerns and Cole Palmer returning to the bench from his ankle injury over the weekend.

While Man City are nearly at full strength, Real Madrid are entirely at full strength, as Carlo Ancelotti has no injury issues to worry about. Eder Militao is back from suspension in the first leg, although it's unclear whether he'll slot back into the lineup after the heroic performances by Antonio Rudiger and David Alaba. Striker Karim Benzema has struggled with fitness issues all season, but there's no keeping  him out of a big game like this.

MORE: Man City vs. Real Madrid head-to-head history

Man City vs Real Madrid key stats

  • Carlo Ancelotti has lost eight of his 11 all-time matches against Manchester City, by far his worst record against any club he's matched up against at least 10 times. He only has more defeats to five other clubs, and he's matched up against each of those five clubs at least 19 times.
  • Man City are unbeaten in their last 25 home Champions League games, and have lost at home just once across all competitions this season.
  • Kevin De Bruyne's seven Champions League goals from outside the penalty area give him the highest percentage (50% — 7 of 14 goals) in the history of the competition of anyone with at least 10 UCL goals.

Man City vs Real Madrid prediction

  • Moneyline lean: Man City (-165)
  • Score prediction: Man City 3-1 Real Madrid

There's no keeping this Manchester City team from the Champions League final. Despite being (at times) outplayed in the first leg, City are the stronger team, and at home they're nearly unstoppable.

Real Madrid's first leg result hinged on heroic performances from their defensive line. Centre-backs Antonio Rudiger and David Alaba recorded sensational performances as a pair in the middle, while Eduardo Camavinga was the best player on the pitch at left-back. It's hard to imagine, given all the defensive issues Madrid have displayed all season long, that those three can repeat the same performance.

Man City are too powerful and too persistent for the lid to be kept on them or another 90 minutes, and they should break out to earn a spot in the final.

Man City vs Real Madrid best bet

  • Pick: Both teams to score — YES
  • Odds: -155 (BetMGM)

These odds aren't great, but they are still palatable enough to be a selection here. Both these teams surely will display an attacking intent as they did in the first leg, and the second leg is surely to be more open as Real Madrid show defensive frailties and Man City concede chances on the counter.

Man City vs Real Madrid prop bet

  • Pick: Jack Grealish to score or assist
  • Odds: +110 (BetMGM)

Jack Grealish was Man City's most consistent attacking threat in the first leg, and his influence should be rewarded with another chance to make an impact. It hasn't been the greatest season from a production standpoint for Grealish, but he is valuable to this City makeup.

The betting market recognises that, and therefore these odds aren't exactly what we'd hope for a player with just 16 goal contributions across all competitions this season, including just a single one in the Champions League. Still, in a game that we expect Man City to bust open, Grealish should be a key contributor.

Man City vs Real Madrid prop bet

  • Pick: Vinicius Jr. to score or assist
  • Odds: +140 (BetMGM)

For a player on absolute fire every time he touches the ball, this play presents significant value. We tipped Vinicius to score or assist in the first leg, and he delivered a stunning goal.

There's reason for going back to the well in the second leg. Vinicius had produced a goal contribution (goal or assist) in each of his last 10 appearances for Real Madrid before coming up empty with 29 minutes off the bench this past weekend (he found the back of the net, but it was nullified for offside), and he's done so in each of his last 11 starts in the Champions League.

Man City vs Real Madrid live stream, TV channel

MORE: Watch Premier League matches live with Fubo in USA

  TV channel Streaming
USA CBS, TUDN, Univision Fubo, Paramount+, TUDN, Univision NOW
Canada DAZN
UK BT Sport 1 BT Sport
Australia Stan Sport
New Zealand Spark Sport
India Sony TEN 2, Sony TEN 3, Sony TEN 4 Sony LIV, JioTV
Hong Kong beIN Sports 3 beIN Sports Connect
Malaysia beIN Sports 3 beIN Sports Connect
Singapore beIN Sports 3 beIN Sports Connect, StarHub TV+

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