Newcastle United vs Arsenal prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Premier League match Sunday
The biggest match of their remaining Premier League schedules sees Newcastle United host Arsenal in a game that will have major implications for both the title and top-four races.
Arsenal know they have zero room for error left in the Premier League title race, with Manchester City already sitting in the driver's seat. City can romp to the championship as it is, so if the Gunners drop any more points, the title is effectively lost for good.
Newcastle, meanwhile, are third in the table, two points above fourth-placed Manchester United, and they can feel comfortable about their top-four chances. Yet the Red Devils hold a game in hand, and fifth-placed Liverpool are just four back of them, meaning a prolonged slump to end the season would put them at risk.
Additionally, a Magpies win at home would put a signature cap on what has been a resounding success of a season, and a scalp of the slipping Gunners could mark a significant triumph in front of the home fans.
The Sporting News football betting expert Kyle Bonn shares his best bets, props, and high risk/high return fliers for some of the biggest matches in the sport each week. Since the start of 2023, his best bets have hit 53.3% of the time, while his overall selections have generated a profit of over 20 units thus far. He has also correctly predicted 53 of 108 match outcomes via his 3-way moneyline leans to date.
Newcastle United vs Arsenal match facts
- Date: Sunday, May 7
- Kickoff Time: 11:30 a.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. BST / 1:30 a.m. AEST (Mon, May 8)
- Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle, England)
- Official: Chris Kavanagh
- Last meeting: Arsenal 0-0 Newcastle (Jan. 3, 2023 | Premier League)
Newcastle United vs Arsenal prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Newcastle (+150)
- Handicap lean: Newcastle -0.5 (+138)
- Score prediction: Newcastle 3-1 Arsenal
While Arsenal bounced back last time out against a struggling and disinterested Chelsea, the Gunners will come up against a far more motivated Newcastle squad at a hostile St. James' Park.
Newcastle have been nigh on unstoppable the past few weeks, beating up on struggling teams like West Ham, Tottenham, Everton, and Southampton. Since defeat to Man City in early March, Newcastle have just one defeat alongside eight victories, outscoring opponents 26-10 in that span.
Gone are the days of the Newcastle clean-sheet machine, but they have balanced that with an overwhelming attack that pours on chances. Arsenal are beat up at the back, already missing William Saliba for an extended period of time before Gabriel Magalhaes suffered an injury late in the Chelsea match, and that defence won't be able to cope. The title race ends here.
|Both teams |
to score Y / N
|Over / Under |
|+150||+260||+160||-190 / +135||-165 / +120||+138||-200|
|+143||+251||+158||-217 / +136||-179 / +127||+138||-185|
|29/20||13/5||17/10||1/2, 6/4||4/7, 5/4||—||—|
|2.40||3.50||2.75||1.50 / 2.45||1.64 / 2.25||—||—|
|2.38||3.66||2.65||1.53 / 2.40||1.63 / 2.28||2.37||1.58|
Newcastle United vs Arsenal: best bet
- Pick: Newcastle to win & both teams to score
- Odds: +300 (BetMGM)
Given Arsenal's defensive injuries and struggles, and Newcastle's exceptional goalscoring form of late, it's hard to see the Magpies being kept off the scoresheet. Instead, the hard part will be seeing the Gunners keep up on the road in a hostile environment.
That shouldn't be a problem. Arsenal haven't been held goalless since an early February defeat at Goodison Park, a run of 14 straight league games with at least one goal. Even when in a big hole, Arsenal never stop pushing for a consolation, as they did against Man City even while down 4-1, or in the big comeback against Southampton.
Incredibly, at least one team has kept a clean sheet in the past nine matches between these two clubs across all competitions, dating back to a 2-1 Arsenal win at St. James' Park in April of 2018. That streak should come to an end here, and Newcastle will halt Arsenal's title chase for good.
Newcastle United vs Arsenal flier bet
- Pick: Arsenal win 1H / Newcastle win 2H
- Odds: +750 (Caesars)
If you're looking for a longshot bet, look no further than this split decision. Looking at how these teams attack games, there's a clear indication about how this one could play out.
When it comes to scoring goals, Arsenal are one of the most prolific first-half sides in the Premier League across 2023, scoring the most first-half goals with 21, and holding a 51 percent share in the first half, only behind West Ham and Leicester City. Newcastle, meanwhile, are profiling as polar opposite, scoring just 41 percent of their 2023 league goals in the first half, and scoring the most goals in the 71-90-minute window of any team in the league.
And when conceding goals? It's completely flipped. In 2023, Newcastle have conceded just six second-half goals, compared to 10 before the break, a 62 percent first-half share that's third in the Premier League. Arsenal, meanwhile, have conceded just 44 percent of their goals in the first half, and that includes the recent early sieve against Man City and Southampton. Overall, they break late, not early.
Newcastle United vs Arsenal live stream, TV channel
MORE: Watch Premier League matches live with Fubo in USA
MORE: Watch Newcastle United vs Arsenal match live with Fubo in Canada
|USA||USA Network, Telemundo||Fubo, Peacock, Telemundo Deportes En Vivo|
|UK||Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Premier League||Sky Sports|
|New Zealand||Sky Sport Premier League||Sky Sport NOW|
|India||Star Sports Select 2||Hotstar VIP, JioTV|
|Hong Kong||Now Premier League (620), Now Premier League 1 (621)||Now E, Now Player|
|Malaysia||Astro SuperSport 3||Astro Go, sooka|
|Singapore||Hub Premier (221-223)||StarHub TV+|