As the 2022/23 Premier League season enters its final two weeks, the fight to secure top-flight survival looks set to go all the way to the last weekend of the campaign.
As of May 15, only one team was confirmed to be relegated as last-place Southampton will be playing in the Championship in 2023/24. Four other teams are in a battle to remain in the Premier League and avoid the final two trap doors.
If Leicester City, who have one win in their last 14 matches, don't win at third-place Newcastle United, they could join Southampton in the second tier with a combination of other results.
Bournemouth have secured Premier League safety and David Moyes' West Ham are practically there too, but not yet mathematically confirmed.
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Premier League relegation odds 2022/23
The relegation picture is clearing up during the run-in, with projections by FiveThirtyEight offering an insight on who could slip through the trap door.
Based on the latest data, the teams currently in the bottom three look destined to go down.
Leicester City are predicted to have an 86% likelihood of relegation, alongside Leeds United on 64%, while Forest (24%) and Everton (26%) are near safety.
Premier League table: The bottom five
*Standings correct as of May 15, 2023
| Pos | Team | Points | Matches Played | Goals Scored | Goal Difference | Next Match | Relegation Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16. | Nott'm Forest | 34 | 36 | 36 | -31 | vs. ARS, May 20 | 24% |
| 17. | Everton | 32 | 36 | 32 | -24 | @ WOL, May 20 | 26% |
| 18. | Leeds United | 31 | 36 | 46 | -25 | @ WHU, May 21 | 64% |
| 19. | Leicester City | 30 | 36 | 49 | -18 | @ NEW, May 22 | 86% |
| 20. | Southampton - R | 24 | 36 | 31 | -35 | @ BRI, May 21 | 100% |
Premier League latest relegation odds 2022/23
Here are the latest relegation odds available at the various sports books around the world.
*Odds updated as of May 15, 2023.
| USA (BetMGM) | UK (Sky Bet) | Australia (Neds) | |
| Leeds United | -275 | 2/5 | 1.36 |
| Everton | +300 | 3/1 | 4.00 |
| Nott'm Forest | +240 | 11/4 | 3.40 |
| Leicester City | -700 | 1/8 | 1.14 |
| West Ham | N/A | 500/1 | 501 |
Relegation probabilities
ESPN's FiveThirtyEight projects the relegation probability for each club involved in the scrap to avoid the drop. Here's how each team has been tracking since early April.
| May 15 | May 14 | May 6 | April 30 | April 27 | April 5 | |
| Everton | 26% | 31% | 63% | 66% | 75% | 37% |
| Nott'm Forest | 24% | 32% | 49% | 54% | 56% | 65% |
| Leeds | 64% | 67% | 60% | 57% | 40% | 10% |
| Leicester | 86% | 70% | 29% | 24% | 31% | 30% |
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