With the final day of the 2022/23 Premier League season nearly upon us, the relegation battle is absolutely white hot.
With Southampton already consigned to the drop, there are three teams jockeying for just one Premier League spot next season, with the other two set to drop down to the Championship.
Leicester City controlled their own destiny heading into the match against Newcastle on Monday, but after failing to win, they now must rely on other results to help them stay up.
Everton remain the most likely to stay up, according to FiveThirtyEight's predictions, holding just a 23 percent chance to go down. Those dropped points by Leicester against Newcastle saw the Toffees become the ones in the driving seat come the final day.
Finally, Leeds are in the thick of the fight as well, and it's an uphill battle for them too. With Sam Allardyce now in charge, Leeds host Tottenham on the last day of the season, needing to win and get outside help to have a chance at staying afloat.
The task is clear for Leicester and Leeds — nothing less than a win will do, and even that may not be enough. For Everton, a win would be enough — but dropping points would leave them needing favours elsewhere.
Premier League table 2023 standings
The game of relegation musical chairs is soon set to finish, with the music coming to a stop and only one seat at the Premier League table left for the three teams dancing around it.
Leeds fell short with a chance to save their season on Sunday against West Ham, while Leicester also did so against Newcastle on Monday. That leaves Everton as the team in command going into the final day.
All three sides are at home on the last matchday of the season, just to add extra spice to the occasion.
Standings updated as of Monday, May 22.
|17.||Everton||33||37||33||-24||vs. BOU, May 28|
|18.||Leicester City||31||37||49||-18||vs. WHU, May 28|
|19.||Leeds United||31||37||47||-27||vs. TOT, May 28|
|20.||Southampton - R||24||37||32||-37||vs. LIV, May 28|
Everton relegation scenarios, permutations
Everton control the relegation battle on the final day of the season.
As the Foxes headed into their game against Newcastle, they had their destiny in their own hands, but by dropping points in the 0-0 draw, it put the Toffees in command.
Everton would save their season with a win, no matter other results, but if they drop points, a win for either Leicester City or Leeds would put them in serious peril.
Everton avoid relegation if...
- Win vs. Bournemouth
- Draw vs. Bournemouth AND Leicester City fail to win vs. West Ham AND Leeds United fail to win vs. Tottenham
- Loss vs. Bournemouth AND Leicester City defeat to West Ham AND Leeds United defeat vs. Tottenham
Leicester City relegation scenarios, permutations
Leicester had a chance to save their own skin with wins in their final two games, with their superior goal difference making them practically uncatchable in that scenario. However, now even a win in their final game may not be enough.
There is a scenario where their goal difference could come to their aid, as it's possible all three sides in the mix could finish level on points.
However, one thing is abundantly clear: the Foxes MUST beat West Ham to have any chance of staying up. Failing to win would mean they fall short of Everton's tally regardless of other results.
One thing to note: the Leeds result will not affect Leicester City. Should the Foxes win, they could not realistically be caught by Leeds United. This is due to the significant goal-difference advantage, which is nine better than Leeds'. Should Leicester win on the final day, it would mean Leeds would need to beat Tottenham by at least 11 goals, which is not a realistic result.
Leicester City avoid relegation if...
- Win vs. West Ham AND Everton draw or loss vs. Bournemouth AND Leeds do not win vs. Tottenham by 11+ goals
Leeds United relegation scenarios, permutations
Leeds United are in the most perilous position of the three teams battling relegation, of that there is no doubt.
Sam Allardyce has a massive mountain to climb, and the scenarios are daunting.
They MUST win against Tottenham to have any chance of survival on the final day. They also need outside help, but it starts with that, there are no other options. A draw would leave Leeds with 32 points, which is below the 33 points that Everton already hold.
Leeds United avoid relegation if...
- Win vs. Tottenham AND Everton defeat vs. Bournemouth AND Leicester City fail to win vs. West Ham
- Win vs. Tottenham by 3+ goals AND Everton draw vs. Bournemouth AND Leicester City fail to win vs. West Ham
- Win vs. Tottenham by 11+ goals AND Everton fail to win Bournemouth AND Leicester City win vs. West Ham