Mavericks NBA Draft Lottery odds, explained: Chances to keep pick from Kristaps Porzingis trade
Mavericks NBA Draft Lottery odds, explained: Chances to keep pick from Kristaps Porzingis trade
Explaining the Mavericks' pick in the NBA Draft

The Mavericks' 2022-23 season could best be described as a disappointment.

After advancing to the Western Conference Finals in 2022, Dallas failed to qualify for the postseason in 2023, stumbling to a 38-44 record, the 11th-worst record in the West.

Making matters worse is that the Mavericks were under fire for their late-season tactics, with the franchise making roster choices that the NBA deemed as "undermined the integrity of our sport." Simply put, Dallas prioritized retaining its draft pick over winning games.

What is the situation with the Mavs' first-round pick? As they look to win the NBA Draft Lottery for the first time in franchise history, look back at how things got to this point.

NBA DRAFT LOTTERY: Odds to win first pick | Year-by-year winners

Mavericks 2023 NBA Draft pick, explained

The Mavericks will have a close eye on the NBA Draft Lottery, as their pick is top-10 protected. Dallas has the 10th-best lottery odds, meaning it is not guaranteed that Dallas will retain its pick.

If the Mavericks' pick falls out of the top 10, it will be sent to the Knicks as part of the 2019 deal in which Dallas acquired Kristaps Porzingis.

Here are the Mavericks' chances to receive each pick in the draft lottery. 

Pick Chances
1st 3.0%
2nd 3.3%
3rd 3.6%
4th 4.0%
5-9 0.0%
10th 659%
11th 19.0%
12th 1.2%
13th >0.0%
14th >0.0%

Dallas has the greatest chance of selecting 10th in the NBA Draft, with a 65.9 percent chance of winning that pick. Conversely, the Mavericks have a 13.9 percent chance of jumping into the top four of the draft.

New York will be watching closely, as there is a greater than 20 percent chance of Dallas' pick falling outside of the top 10. In the event that the Mavericks' pick falls, the Knicks will make a lottery selection after making their deepest playoff run in a decade.

Why were the Mavericks fined?

Before the Mavericks were mathematically eliminated from the postseason, they elected to rest key players in a game vs. the Bulls on April 7. 

The decision drew the attention of the NBA, which opened an investigation into the decision to rest all starters except for Luka Doncic, who saw just 13 minutes of playing time in a three-point loss. 

After the investigation, the NBA deemed that Dallas violated league policies in order to increase its chances to finish with a bottom-10 record and retain its lottery pick.

The Mavericks violated the league's player resting policy and demonstrated through actions and public statements the organization's desire to lose the game in order to improve the chances of keeping its first- round pick in the 2023 NBA Draft.

The following was released by the NBA.

— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) April 14, 2023

The Mavericks finished with a 38-44 record — two games worse than the Bulls. Had the Mavericks finished with the league's 11th-worst record, their chances to keep their pick would have been lower than 10 percent.

2023 NBA Draft Lottery odds

The Pistons, Rockets and Spurs all have equal odds (14.0%) to win the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery. The Mavericks have a 3.0% chance to win the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft.

Team Odds for No. 1 pick
Pistons 14.0%
Rockets 14.0%
Spurs 14.0%
Hornets 12.5%
Trail Blazers 10.5%
Magic 9.0%
Pacers 6.8%
Wizards 6.7%
Jazz 4.5%
Mavericks 3.0%
Chicago 1.8%
Oklahoma City 1.7%
Toronto 1.0%
New Orleans 0.5%

When is the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery?

  • Date: Tuesday, May 16
  • Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: ESPN

The results of the lottery will be revealed beginning at 8:30 p.m. ET. and viewers in the United States can tune into the broadcast of the results on ESPN. A live stream will also be available to those in the U.S. on Sling TV.

Fans in the U.S. can watch the NBA Draft Lottery and playoffs on Sling TV, which is now offering $10 off your first month! Stream Sling Orange for $30 in your first month to catch the lottery plus every playoff games on TNT, ESPN & ABC. Local regional blackout restrictions apply.

SIGN UP FOR SLING: English | Spanish

The actual NBA Draft is not until Thursday, June 22. It will be held at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.

What's your reaction?


0 comment

Write the first comment for this!

Facebook Conversations

Disqus Conversations