NBA Draft Lottery winners: Year-by-year odds for every team to win first overall pick
NBA Draft Lottery winners: Year-by-year odds for every team to win first overall pick
Complete history of NBA Draft Lottery winners

So you're saying there's a chance?

The 2023 NBA Draft Lottery is upon us and it's one of the most important in the history of the league. With generational prospect Victor Wembanyama sitting atop the 2023 NBA Draft board, franchises will exercise all of their good luck charms to do whatever it takes to land the No. 1 pick.

In 2019, the NBA adjusted its weighted lottery system to try and prevent tanking, giving teams with the three worst records an equal 14.0 percent chance to win the top pick.

And while a team with a 14.0 percent chance has won three out of the four NBA Draft Lotteries since 2019, the Pelicans landed superstar forward Zion Williamson with a slim 6.0 percent chance in the first year with the new odds.

Will another long-shot franchise get lucky with Wembanyama? Or will the French phenom land with one of the teams atop of the lottery odds board?

MORE: Pre-lottery NBA Mock Draft

The Sporting News has the complete history of NBA Draft Lottery winners below.

Longest odds to win NBA Draft Lottery since 1990

Since the weighted lottery system was adopted in 1990, eight teams that had a first-pick probability of 6.30 percent or lower have won the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft.

In 1993, the Magic won the lottery with a 1.5 percent probability, marking the largest lottery upset in the weighted era.

In 2019, the NBA adjusted the weighted lottery system to prevent tanking, giving teams with the three worst records in the league an equal 14.0 percent chance. In the first year with the new odds in place, the Pelicans won the 2019 NBA Draft Lottery with a slim 6.0 percent chance to land the No. 1 pick.

MORE: Full details on why the NBA changed the lottery odds

Every year since, a team with the highest odds (14.0 percent) has won the lottery. You can find the longest odds to win the NBA Draft Lottery below.

Year Team Probability (Rank) Selection
2019 Pelicans 6.00% (T-7th) Zion Williamson
2014 Cavaliers 1.40% (9th) Andrew Wiggins
2011 Clippers (conveyed to Cavaliers) 2.80% (8th) Kyrie Irving
2008 Bulls 1.70% (9th) Derrick Rose
2007 Trail Blazers  5.30% (6th) Greg Oden
2005 Bucks 6.30% (6th) Andrew Bogut
2000 Nets 4.40% (7th) Kenyon Martin
1993 Magic 1.52% (11th) Chris Webber

2023 NBA Draft Lottery Odds 

Here are the odds for the 2023 NBA Draft lottery.

Team Odds for No. 1 Pick
Pistons 14.0%
Rockets 14.0%
Spurs 14.0%
Hornets 12.5%
Trail Blazers 10.5%
Magic 9.0%
Pacers 6.8%
Wizards 6.7%
Jazz 4.5%
Mavericks 3.0%
Bulls 1.8%
Thunder 1.7%
Raptors 1.0%
Pelicans 0.5%

History of No. 1 overall picks in NBA Draft

Here is every team in the lottery era (since 1985) to win the No. 1 overall pick along with their pre-lottery odds. From 1985-89, every team in the lottery had the same odds to win the No. 1 overall pick.

The NBA began using weighted odds by record starting in 1990 and adjusted that format to try and prevent tanking in 2019.

Year Team No. 1 Pick Probability Pre-Lottery Position Selection
2022 Magic 14.0% T-1st Paolo Banchero
2021 Pistons 14.0% T-1st Cade Cunningham
2020 Timberwolves 14.0% T-1st Anthony Edwards
2019 Pelicans 6.0% 7th Zion Williamson
2018 Suns 25.0% 1st Deandre Ayton
2017 76ers (via Celtics) 25.0% 1st Markelle Fultz
2016 76ers 25.0% 1st Ben Simmons
2015 Timberwolves 25.0% 1st Karl-Anthony Towns
2014 Cavaliers 1.7% 9th Andrew Wiggins
2013 Cavaliers 15.6% 3rd Anthony Bennett
2012 Hornets 13.7% 4th Anthony Davis
2011 Cavaliers (via Clippers) 2.8% 8th Kyrie Irving
2010 Wizards 10.3% 5th John Wall
2009 Clippers 17.7% 3rd Blake Griffin
2008 Bulls 1.7% 9th Derrick Rose
2007 Trail Blazers 5.3% 7th Greg Oden
2006 Raptors 8.8% 5th Andrea Bargnani
2005 Bucks 6.3% 6th Andrew Bogut
2004 Magic 25% 1st Dwight Howard
2003 Cavaliers 22.5% T-1st LeBron James
2002 Rockets 8.9% 5th Yao Ming
2001 Wizards 15.7% 3rd Kwame Brown
2000 Nets 4.4% 7th Kenyon Martin
1999 Bulls 15.7% 3rd Elton Brand
1998 Clippers 22.5% 2nd Michael Olowakandi
1997 Spurs 21.6% 2nd Tim Duncan
1996 76ers 33.7% 1st Allen Iverson
1995 Warriors 9.4% 5th Joe Smith
1994 Bucks 16.3% 4th Glenn Robinson
1993 Magic 1.5% 11th Chris Webber
1992 Magic 15.2% 2nd Shaquille O'Neal
1991 Hornets 10.6% 5th Larry Johnson
1990 Nets 16.7% 1st Derrick Coleman
1989 Kings 11.1% T-1st Pervis Ellison
1988 Clippers 14.3% T-1st Danny Manning
1987 Spurs 14.3% T-1st David Robinson
1986 Cavaliers (via 76ers) 14.3% T-1st Brad Daugherty
1985 Knicks 14.3% T-1st Patrick Ewing

What channel is the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery on?

Fans in the U.S. can watch the NBA Draft Lottery and playoffs on Sling TV, which is now offering $10 off your first month! Stream Sling Orange for $30 in your first month to catch the lottery plus every playoff games on TNT, ESPN & ABC. Local regional blackout restrictions apply.

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